Distributional impact of carbon pricing in Romania: EPG study

EPG’s latest policy paper, released today, investigates the economic and social feasibility of carbon pricing in Romania. This study signed by Constantin Postoiu, Daniel Duma and Daniela Panica simulates a stylised general carbon tax, evaluating its impact on the economy and the welfare of the population. Alongside the paper, Energy Policy Group is also publishing a presentation which sums up the latest regulations regarding ETS2 and the Social Climate Fund.

“Carbon taxes with revenue redistribution represent a promising policy option for reducing emissions and energy poverty at the same time. A carbon tax increases the prices of goods in proportion to their embedded emissions and creates incentives for consumers and producers to shift to lower-carbon alternatives. The revenues collected can be directed at lower-income households both for income support and emissions-reducing interventions, such as energy efficiency, distributed renewable energy, electric heating and transport. At the same time, carbon taxes are politically sensitive. Increasing the price of emission-intensive goods, particularly energy, may reduce economic output in the short run and increase the cost-of-living for households, particularly for the ones affected by poverty.

To add to the body of evidence on this relationship, we conduct a simulation of the effects of a generalized carbon tax on all consumption goods with revenue redistribution on GDP growth, employment, household welfare and energy poverty levels. The carbon tax is determined though an economic model at the levels required for a 40% reduction in emissions by 2032 compared to 2021. In absolute terms this means going below 70 Mt CO₂ eq. of GHG emissions, almost a quarter of the 1990 level. The tax ranges between 2.95$/ tonne of CO₂ in 2022 and 15.17$ in 2032, coming on top of the existing carbon price imposed through the EU Emissions Trading Scheme on power producers and heavy industry. The results show minimal negative effects on GDP growth (-0.12%) and employment (-0.02%) in 2032 compared to the baseline. Regarding the impact on households, the tax would generate a welfare loss between 0.8% for the highest income decile and 1.3% for the lowest decile, confirming the potential regressive effects. However, when revenue redistribution is designed as a lump-sum transfer, or price subsidy for lower-income households, the policy becomes progressive, and these households experience a welfare gain. This is also reflected in the energy poverty rates, which become lower with carbon taxes and redistribution than the baseline.”

You may find the study and the presentation HERE.