Bogdan Nichisoiu, Coface: “No economic contraction is expected for Romania in 2024”

This year should be one of truce, resilient in many sectors and in which no economic contraction is expected for Romania, according to Bogdan Nichisoiu, Rating Manager of Coface Romania.

“2024 should be a year of truce. A resilient year in many, many sectors, many vectors of economic traction. I look at what the IMF says, what the European Commission predicts, at an entire portfolio of predictions for 2024, and the common message is that for Romania no one indicates a recession,” said Nichisoiu during a press conference.

“We believe in the resilience of private consumption in 2024. We are in the context of an election year. Statistically, in the last 30 years, no election year had a contraction in private consumption. We have a tense labor market. It would be the surprise of the century for me to see an exacerbation of unemployment. The money will still remain in the employees’ pockets. Even if we have this kind of inflection point in January, we still see inflation in this range at the end of the year, of 5.5 – 6 percentage points. We believe that the nominal salary will increase somewhere around 7-8 percentage points, we see the real salary in a positive area.

Without a major external shock, I do not see a frugal figure in the consumption area in 2024, as it was in 2023, of 1.9%. I think this figure will be higher than 1.9% in 2024.”