Colliers: 2024 is shaping up to be another strong year for the industrial and logistics market

The first three quarters of 2024 saw positive developments in Romania’s industrial and logistics real estate sector. Total rental demand reached 520,000 square meters from January to September, marking an 8 percent decrease from the same period last year, according to Colliers data. This data includes only public rental transactions reported in the local real estate forum or publicly disclosed by companies through financial reports and press releases. Colliers consultants note that this trend aligns with recent patterns, showing strong transactional activity for out-of-town rental spaces, while demand for dedicated manufacturing spaces is capturing an increasing share of the total.

“There is a significant volume of direct transactions, primarily renegotiations but not exclusively, that are not publicly reported. As a result, the total leasing volume is likely much higher, contributing at least an estimated 30 percent to the overall transacted volume. After the first three quarters, we can confidently say that 2024 is shaping up to be a strong year. Over half a million square meters of industrial space have already been leased in Romania, and several large deals expected in the final months could bring the total for the year to a solid result of at least 700,000 – 800,000 square meters”, says Victor Coșconel, Partner | Head of Leasing | Office & Industrial Agencies at Colliers.

More than 42 percent of the space leased between January and September 2024 was in warehousing areas around Bucharest. However, this percentage has decreased significantly from 2018-2020 levels, when 60 percent to 70 percent of leasing activity was concentrated near the capital. Colliers experts note that this shift is a natural trend, driven by a variety of factors supporting this evolution.

“The development of infrastructure in regions of the country that previously faced challenges has increased developer interest in these areas. Additionally, factors such as labor availability, competitive costs, and the nationwide expansion of retailers are driving rental demand beyond Bucharest. This doesn’t mean interest in the capital will vanish; rather, it will likely decrease, following trends similar to those observed in Poland”, explains Victor Coșconel.

According to Colliers data, the stock of industrial space in Poland’s capital has grown 2.8 times since 2010, reaching nearly 6.6 million square meters by mid-2024. However, Warsaw’s share of the national industrial space has decreased over this period, dropping from over 40 percent to below 20 percent. Currently, Bucharest accounts for just under half of Romania’s total industrial space stock, which stands at 7.5 million square meters.

By sector, data from the first nine months of the year indicate that the consumer sector continues to drive the largest share of leasing activity, either directly or indirectly, through 3PL logistics companies working with retailers. Colliers consultants note, however, a significant increase in manufacturing activity, which accounted for about 33 percent of total leased space from January to September 2024—well above the pre-pandemic level of 10-15 percent. This trend is also supported by increased investment in the Romanian economy. According to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Eurostat, gross fixed capital formation is near all-time highs in real terms, Colliers experts underline.

“In 2018-2019, our reports estimated that the stock of industrial space could reach 7-8 million square meters by 2030. At that time, the stock was below 4 million square meters, and the market was growing at a relatively slow pace. Since then, we have already reached that threshold, and the target of 10 million square meters by the end of the decade is looking increasingly realistic. If we manage to avoid a challenging global economic scenario or a major escalation in geopolitical tensions, the completion of highways currently under construction could further accelerate this growth, following the Polish model. Poland has expanded its industrial space stock more than fivefold since 2010, surpassing 33 million square meters this year”, concludes Victor Coșconel, Partner | Head of Leasing | Office & Industrial Agencies at Colliers.