Global transport sector won’t recover to fourth quarter 2019 level before 2022, Coface says

Global transport sector won’t recover to fourth quarter 2019 level before 2022, Coface study shows. The turnover of listed companies of the global transport sector will be 32% lower in the 4th quarter 2020 and 5% lower in the 4th quarter 2021 than in the 4th quarter 2019.

In the hypothesis of a second wave of the pandemic in the 3rd quarter of 2020, the turnover would be 57% lower in the Q4 2020 and 27% lower in the Q4 2021.

Among the 13 sectors for which Coface publishes sectoral risk assessments, air transport would be the most affected: its turnover expected to decrease by 51% in the baseline scenario and by 57% in the event of a second COVID-19 wave in Q3 2020.

According to the IATA (International Air Transport Association), air traffic decreased by 94% year-on-year in April 2020 and is not expected to return to its pre-COVID level before several years.

The fall in air passenger activity led to a strong decrease in air cargo capacity, as most of air cargo is carried by passenger aircraft in the “belly” of the plane.